Brian Berger’s NFL Locks for Week #11

Guest post by @BSB84
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Whoa! I went 10-3 last week. Bringing my season tally to 62-51-1.

Miami -4 vs Buffalo – Miami is very good. Even being 5-4 they have an elite defense and probably should have won last week

Houston +3 vs Cleveland – Cleveland should win this game, but I feel like every time we’re ready to go forward with them they lose a game they shouldn’t

Chicago -3 vs Minnesota – Da Bears have no business being favored, yet they are.

 

Rest of the picks:
GB -6 vs Philadelphia
KC -2 vs Seattle
Carolina +1.5 vs Atlanta
New Orleans -7 vs Cincinnati (what a fall from grace for the Bengals)
Tampa Bay +7 vs Washington
Denver -9.5 vs St. Louis
NY Giants +4 vs San Fran
San Diego -10 vs Oakland
Detroit +1.5 vs Arizona
Indianapolis -3 vs NE
Pittsburgh -6 vs Tennessee

A few weeks back we looked at the Detroit Lions defense as a unit that was dominant and, while surprising because they are the lions, not that surprising given the past few years. Here are the top five teams in Weighted DVOA (Weight DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games).

1. Den (36.2%)
2. Bal (23.7%)
3. GB (21.3%)
4. Philly (21%)
5. Sea (19.4%)

The one “obvious” shocker in there is Baltimore. However, they are #2 in DVOA for the entire year, so don’t be surprised if they make a deep playoff run. Baltimore is really good. The even crazier part is the gap between 1 and 2 (Denver and Baltimore) is as large as the gap between 2 and 9 (Baltimore and Detroit). Which goes to show you that even though Denver got manhandled by the Pats a few weeks back, they are still the best team in football.

*DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Click here for a further explanation