Brian Berger’s NFL Locks for Week #3

Guest post by @BSB84
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And we’re baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack. It’s been a two year hiatus but given that the creator of this website now has the need for some original content he’s come crawling back to me. Can’t say I blame him since the last time I did this I had a winning record (too bad I wasn’t actually betting).

New England -14 vs Oakland – We’ve all seen Oakland play right? Last week at home against the Texans, which was supposed to be an “easy” game, they lost by 16. I’ll give the points traveling cross country to New England.

 

Jets -2.5 vs Chicago – Sucker bet written all over it. The Jets have no business being favored after the Bears just went to San Fran and won.

 

NY Giants +2 vs Houston – Giants played well last week against an elite defense. Plus I don’t really like Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

The rest of the picks:

 

Tampa Bay +5 vs Atlanta
San Diego -2.5 vs Buffalo
St. Louis +1 vs Dallas
Washington +6.5 vs Philadelphia
New Orleans -10 vs Minnesota
Cincinnati -7 vs Tennessee
Cleveland +1.5 vs Baltimore
Detroit -2 vs Green Bay
Indianapolis -6.5 vs Jacksonville
San Francisco -3 vs Arizona
Seattle -4.5 vs Denver
Miami -4 vs Kansas City
Carolina -3 vs Pittsburgh

 

We’re starting from scratch beginning this week. Good to be back.

 

Season Record: 0-0

I’m going to use the space below my picks to discuss something I find interesting. It could be a stat from the past week, trend, basically whatever I want. After two weeks, you know who has the third best run defense by DVOA (quick note: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Click here for a further explanation)? The Lions!! Yes, I know it’s only two weeks, but the Lions rush defense was 5th last year by DVOA. Clearly with Suh and their other personnel they have the ability to field a great defensive rushing unit (the pass defense, meh). So in fantasy, beware of any running backs that are going against the Lions, don’t expect much from them.