Brian Berger’s NFL Locks for Week #8

eagles vs cardinals week 8Guest post by @BSB84

Woooooo. Big Bounce back week last week. Went 11-4, bringing my record to 40-33-1.

San Diego +8.5 vs Denver – San Diego won last year at Denver and one of these days, Denver won’t win in a blowout
New Orleans -1.5 vs Green Bay – Sucker bet!
Cincinnati PK vs Baltimore – Another sucker bet!

Onto the rest of the picks (can’t wait to lose both of those sucker bets)

Atlanta +3.5 vs Detroit
Minnesota +3 vs Tampa Bay
New England -6 vs Chicago
Kansas City -7 vs St. Louis
Carolina +5 vs Seattle
NY Jets -3 vs Buffalo
Jacksonville +6 vs Miami (coming on Jax, two game winning streak!)
Tennessee +2 vs Houston
Philadelphia +2.5 vs Arizona
Indianapolis -3 vs Pittsburgh
Cleveland -7 vs Oakland
Dallas -9.5 vs Washington

This Weeks Topic:

Super Bowl Odds! Here are the final preseason odds for the teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl (all numbers courtesy of Bovada).

  • Denver Broncos – 11/2
  • Seattle Seahawks – 6/1
  • New England Patriots – 8/1
  • San Francisco 49ers – 8/1
  • Green Bay Packers – 9/1
  • New Orleans Saints – 9/1
  • Philadelphia Eagles – 20/1
  • Chicago Bears – 22/1
  • Indianapolis Colts – 22/1
  • Detroit Lions – 33/1

Here is the current top 10, which features three new teams compared to the preseason list above.

  • Denver Broncos – 3/1 (This is how well the Broncos are playing: At the beginning of the year they were basically co-favorites with Seattle, now they are three times more likely to win than the next closest team, the Packers)
  • Green Bay Packers – 8/1
  • Seattle Seahawks – 9/1
  • Dallas Cowboys – 9/1 (the biggest mover in the top 10. Preseason they were 66/1!)
  • New England Patriots – 12/1
  • Indianapolis Colts – 12/1
  • San Diego Chargers – 12/1 (New entrant. They were 40-1 in the preseason)
  • San Francisco 49ers – 14/1
  • Philadelphia Eagles – 16/1
  • Baltimore Ravens – 18/1 (The last new team, they were also 40-1 in the preseason)

The three teams that dropped out are the Saints, Bears and Lions. The Saints and Bears dropped out because they aren’t playing well. Their current odds are 33/1 (Saints) and 75/1 (Bears). The Lions have actually improved their odds since the beginning of the year as they currently sit at 28/1. It’s just that the Cowboys, Chargers and Ravens have been pretty awesome this year so far, so they jumped them. We’ll check back with these as we get closer to the Playoffs.

Brian Berger’s NFL Locks for Week #7

Guest post by @BSB84


This conversation sums up how last week went for me:

Me: I will get you picks later this afternoon
PerezSolomon: Cool cool
Me: I’m scared to look, I think I had a terrible week
PerezSolomon: I don’t think it was that bad
Me: You’re right, it was worse, 4-10-1

That’s right, 4-10-1! Bringing my overall record to 29-29-1. That’s right, .500 baby!

NY Giants +6.5 vs Dallas – I just think that Dallas has one of those games where you remind yourself that they are still the Cowboys

Minnesota +5.5 vs Buffalo – Now that Minny isn’t going against the best defense in the league (yes, that is Detorit!) I expect them to be able to move the ball

Baltimore -7 vs Atlanta – Joe Flacco threw 5 touchdowns in about 30 seconds last week. This week he goes against a terrible defense with no pass rush

The rest of the picks:

NY Jets +9.5 vs New England
Indianapolis -3 vs Cincinnati
Tennessee +5.5 vs Washington
Chicago -3 vs Miami
Jacksonville +5.5 vs Cleveland (the Browns are really fun aren’t they?!)
Seattle -7 vs St. Louis
Green Bay -7 vs Carolina
New Orleans +3 vs Detroit
Kansas City +4 vs San Diego
Arizona -3.5 vs Oakland
Denver -6.5 vs San Fran
Houston +3. vs Pittsburgh

So Peyton manning is going to break Brett Favre’s all-time touchdown passes record either this week or next (he only needs three more). The remarkable thing isn’t that he’s going to break it (although that’s pretty remarkable in and of itself) it’s how he’s done it without throwing a ton of interceptions. For those that don’t know, not only does Favre own the touchdowns thrown record, he has also thrown the most interceptions ever, by a lot. Favre has thrown 336 interceptions, second place is George Blanda with 277.

Brett Favre’s interception percentage* is 3.3% (Blanda’s is 6.9% if you want to know), good for 57th all-time and tied with some luminaries who played the quarterback position such as Tony Eason, Elvis Grbac and Joe(y) Harrington.

Manning currently sits at 222 interceptions, including the three he’s thrown this year. If he retires after next year, given that he’s thrown about 14.6 picks per year (12.7 if you remove his disastrous rookie year, where he threw 28) he’ll finish around the top 10 of most interceptions thrown. However, his interception % is a ridiculous 2.6%. Good enough to be tied for 15th all time. That number might change a little bit, but it’s not going to vary too much at this point in his career.

People want to talk about the Super Bowls (not won) for Peyton Manning, and I guess that is fair to some degree. But there is a a reason that he is going to go down as one of the greatest, if not the greatest to ever play this game. Peyton Manning is very very good at football.

* Interception % is the percentage of times intercepted when attempting to pass